“To fossil fuel or not to fossil fuel, that is the question: Whether ’tis nobler in the Earth to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous pollution, Or to take arms against a sea of emissions And, by opposing, end them. To die: to switch; No more; and by a switch to say we end The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks That fossil fuels are heir to, ’tis a consummation Devoutly to be wished…”
– “To fossil fuel or not to fossil fuel”, Inspired by William Shakespeare…but not written by him
Pixabay. Pexels, www.pexels.com/search/wind%20mills/. Accessed 25 Sept. 2023.
You rely on the energy industry every day. Turning on the lights, making a cup of tea, charging your phone…the list of simple tasks like these goes on. Where that energy comes from, who controls it, and how it affects the environment is a much trickier matter.
“Energy” is a heated topic, especially in the face of both a cost of living and climate crisis. It’s one of those necessities that are charged with political baggage and still somehow unite us as humans. Since the beginning of history, our ability to harness energy from outside of ourselves is what propelled us into the future. Now, we are in an era unlike any we’ve seen before, an era of pivotal choice: Do we continue our reliance on fossil fuels or leap into the age of nuclear and renewables? How do we make the switch? What are the risks? What will it look like?
Many individuals much more qualified than me have already given their answers to these questions, and I wholeheartedly encourage you to go see what they think. I, however, am going to give you something entirely different.
Instead of asking “What are the obstacles? What should we do? How do we make it happen?” I’m going to ask “How do we reframe the problem?”, and more specifically “What are we missing?”
Yes, you got that right. I’m going to play devil’s advocate for the greater good, taking some of the (in my opinion) strongest challenges to transitioning away from fossil fuels and considering what they get right. This serves to highlight the weaknesses in the way we currently think about the transition, and understanding these weaknesses is the first step to truly addressing them.
So let’s dive in.
Ideally, decisions in the energy industry would be guided by three main factors, known as the energy trilemma- affordability, security, and climate challenges. Any truly successful shift toward green energy would, in theory, satisfy each of them.
van Heerden, Frans. Pexels, www.pexels.com/search/dam/. Accessed 25 Sept. 2023.
So what are they?
First, affordability. This aspect of the energy trilemma asks whether energy is affordable and accessible to all individuals and businesses. The current answer? No. As it stands, energy prices are highly volatile, in part due to policies transitioning away from fossil fuels, in part thanks to the geopolitical pressures of the Russia-Ukraine War.
Next in the energy trilemma are climate challenges. In the COP26 conference in Glasgow, it was agreed upon that countries would phase-down coal power and phase-out “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies.
Many would argue that the opposite has occurred. In fact, the 2023 synthesis report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is a gap between “declared national ambitions” and “current implementation for all aspects of climate action”, making it likely that warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius in the 21st century. Furthermore, according to Our World in Data, 73.2% of the global greenhouse gas emissions come from energy. This reiterates that reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy industry is particularly crucial.
Last but not least, there is energy security. Similar to “affordability”, but slightly different, energy security is about whether energy production is stable and reliable. This involves a diversification of energy sources, resilience in infrastructure, having adequate storage facilities for energy, etc. The International Energy Agency (IEA) defines it as “the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price”.
So there you have it, the energy trilemma- affordability, climate challenges, and security. These three considerations are being constantly juggled as the future of the energy industry is written. In fact, they are such a pressing concern that the United Nations’ seventh Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) is “Affordable and Clean Energy”, which outlines the goal of ensuring “affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all”.
So we’ve established that we want “affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all”. Now, let’s hash out some of the more prickly points. I wholeheartedly welcome you to disagree, change your mind, and second guess.
“Fossil fuels are needed for the economy to grow- a transition away from them would hurt the economy.”
The historical precedent for this is undeniable. How can wealthy nations expect emerging economies to grow without coal- especially when that’s how they did it during the Industrial Revolution? To add insult to injury, fossil fuel subsidies in these affluent G20 nations continue to reach dizzying heights. According to the International Monetary Fund, in 2022, fossil fuel subsidies even increased by $2 trillion USD from 2020 to 2022 despite COP 26 pledges to phase out “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies. It’s a classic case of “do as I say, not as I do”, and unfortunately for those G20 countries, everyone hates a hypocrite.
So clearly we rely economically on fossil fuels, right?
The current volatile energy market begs to differ. Amid geopolitical tensions resulting from the Russia-Ukraine War, energy prices have spiked, trade flows have shifted, and supply shortages have created more pressure on countries to build long-term energy security. Between May and October of 2022, Russia cut gas flows to the EU by 80%. This is not even considering the pressure to develop more climate-friendly energy policies as a result of COP 27 and 28.
So the 2023 energy landscape is a different beast than it was even a decade ago. The problems are different, so the solutions are too. After considering fossil fuel supply shortages and stricter climate policies, are fossil fuels the way this economy is going to grow? It doesn’t seem like it.
So why not just use renewable energy instead without this whole debacle? Ah, good question, and the answer again harks back to the energy trilemma: affordability, security, and climate challenges.
That brings us to energy security.
“Renewable energy sources do not provide a stable source of energy like fossil fuels do.”
Let’s address the elephant in the room, or rather, the solar panels and windmills outside.
I’m just going to say it: It’s true. Solar panels are less efficient when it’s cloudy. Windmills don’t work without wind. Hydroelectric power requires water to flow quickly. And fossil fuels? They just need to be burned, and that is within human control.
I’ll let you in on a secret. Fossil fuels are not actually as “stable” as they promise. As I mentioned before, geopolitical instability and increasingly strict climate policies have forced countries to rethink their energy mix and precisely how much they want to depend on importing oil and gas from other countries. The war in Ukraine has highlighted this, resulting in spiking fossil fuel costs. According to this BBC article from January, many countries have even pledged to either end or restrict their oil and gas imports to curtail Moscow’s revenues and stifle its war efforts.
Yet not only is an energy mix of predominantly fossil fuels therefore unstable, but it is also temporary. Fossil fuels are nonrenewable, which means we cannot replenish them once we’ve used them up. In a longevity-focused economy, the long-term goal should be at the forefront of decision-making rather than an afterthought.
That said, innovation costs money.
“The initial investment cost of setting up renewable energy infrastructure is higher than their fossil fuel counterparts.”
The age-old rebuttal to every too-good-to-be-true idea: “It sounds great, but…that’s how much it costs?!”
It’s true. Or rather, it was once upon a time, but according to an article from The Conversation, the cost of generating power from wind and solar has actually fallen significantly- 40% for onshore wind and far more for solar and offshore wind. This World Economic Forum article from 2020 even states that the price of solar energy alone has fallen by 89% in the past decade. This is then supported by a 2023 article by the World Economic Forum, which suggests that “2023 could be the year that renewable power reaches a tipping point where power-generation emissions begin to fall”.
So the question is not whether renewables call for a high initial investment, but whether they are worth the price. Some would argue they aren’t, as renewable energy is “unstable”, requires a significant amount of land and mineral resources, and might mean job displacement for many people.
However, it can also be argued that it is worth it. With the jobs that are lost, jobs will be created. According to a new report by the International Renewable Energy Agency, “accelerating energy transitions in line with a livable climate could double energy jobs up to 122 million by 2050”, with up to a third of these jobs in renewable energy.
Now hold on a second, you’re thinking. You keep talking about these environmental benefits, but it’s more complicated than that…
—. Pexels, www.pexels.com/search/coal/. Accessed 25 Sept. 2023.
“The production and disposal of renewable energy technology has negative environmental impacts such as waste generation, resource extraction, conflicts over land use, and deforestation.”
No one wants to admit that “green energy” can sometimes seem…not so green. For example, it sometimes fuels deforestation, which many call the “green paradox”. Some recent wind turbine designs which include blades up to about 100m long require about 150 cubic meters of Balsa wood from the Amazon, which is equivalent to several tonnes, and has resulted in land disputes with native Amazonians.
In addition to this, the transition to renewable energy can threaten human rights. Many indigenous communities exhibit resistance toward renewable projects, even despite showing strong sentiments that climate change should be treated as a top priority issue. The reason? Many renewable energy projects take place on indigenous land or even involve their displacement from the land entirely.
Another “green paradox” is renewable energy’s intense demand for nonrenewable rare earth minerals. According to this 2021 review in the journal Nature, we are not yet at the point where the demand for these minerals, such as cobalt and lithium, can be satisfied through a circular economy even though that is the goal. For metals, like aluminum and cobalt, “for which end-of-life recycling is up to 70%, secondary supply still only accounts for 30% of their growing demand”. As of the time the report was published, lithium recycling only accounted for 1% of the demand.
In comparison though, fossil fuels are entirely nonrenewable and incompatible with a circular economy. While renewables might currently rely on nonrenewable earth minerals, they at least function on renewable fuel (e.g. wind, sunlight, tides, wave power etc.), making them by nature a better fit with a circular economy.
In regards to human rights, renewable energy also trumps fossil fuels, particularly considering the rights to water, health, and even life that fossil fuel consumption in the energy industry threatens.
Taking all these concerns into consideration, it becomes clear that renewable energy is not perfect, nor is it a one-dimensional issue solely centered on the environment. So how do we navigate the transition?
It starts with questions, skepticism, and a fundamental mindset shift.
To really appreciate the scope of a green transition, it is necessary to acknowledge that it is not only an environmental imperative but also a social one. In my next article, I will examine the multifaceted aspects of this transition, reframing the intricate relationship between all three components of the energy trilemma that were introduced here.
Thought to Action
Turn your knowledge into action.
- Energy Audit: Conduct a thorough energy audit of your home to identify areas where energy can be saved and costs reduced.
- Peak Hour Awareness: Shift energy-intensive tasks, such as laundry and cooking, to off-peak hours to help stabilize demand and reduce strain on the grid.
- LED Lighting: Replace incandescent bulbs with energy-efficient LED lighting to reduce electricity consumption and lower your energy bills.
- Unplug Electronics: Unplug chargers and electronics when not in use to prevent “phantom” energy consumption.
- Smart Thermostats: Install smart thermostats to optimize heating and cooling, reducing energy wastage and saving costs.
- Energy-Efficient Appliances: When replacing appliances, choose energy-efficient models that consume less electricity over their lifetime.
- Solar Solutions: Consider installing solar panels or solar water heaters to generate clean energy and potentially reduce your reliance on the grid.
Sources
Check your sources.
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“A Human Rights Agenda for Ending Fossil Fuels.” Human Rights Watch, 29 Apr. 2022, www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/29/human-rights-agenda-ending-fossil-fuels. Accessed 26 Sept. 2023.
“Accelerating the Transition from Fossil Fuels and Securing Energy Supplies – Environmental Audit Committee.” Parliament.uk, 2022, publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmenvaud/109/report.html. Accessed 26 Sept. 2023.
“Accelerating the Transition from Fossil Fuels and Securing Energy Supplies – Environmental Audit Committee.” Parliament.uk, 2022, publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmenvaud/109/report.html. Accessed 26 Sept. 2023.
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—. “G20 Poured More than $1tn into Fossil Fuel Subsidies despite Cop26 Pledges – Report.” The Guardian, The Guardian, 23 Aug. 2023, www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/23/g20-poured-more-than-1tn-on-fossil-fuel-subsidies-despite-cop26-pledges-report?trk=public_post_comment-text. Accessed 26 Sept. 2023.
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